The Trump Medical Insurance Bill voted to delay the gold short-term plan to counterattack?

On Friday (March 24), spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range of $1245.78 per ounce. Trump's medical reform bill was delayed one day, and the market as a whole remained cautious. The overnight US new home sales data performed well, helping the dollar lower. Stabilizing, gold Shorts took the opportunity to counterattack, so that the $ 1250 mark was lost. If the Trump medical reform bill passed unexpectedly in the evening, the gold bears may launch a full-scale counterattack.

☆ Fundamental Aspect 1: The Trump Medical Reform Act voted delayed one day

According to Huitong.com, the US House of Representatives originally planned to vote for Trump’s health reform bill on Thursday (March 23), but after a day of discussion, Trump did not seem to have enough confidence to let the bill pass. Delayed until Friday evening in Beijing time. If the bill unexpectedly may cause the dollar to regain its gains, the gold price may face a sell-off again.

Some conservative Republicans believe that Trump's new health insurance plan is not strong enough, and some moderates worry that the legislation will hurt their voters; so the vote was postponed as the negotiations continued until the evening.

White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said the White House is expected to pass the bill on Friday morning (Friday night, Beijing time).

Harris, a member of the Republican Liberal Party, pointed out that the meeting with President Trump did not yield new information. If the new health insurance bill is voted on Thursday, it will definitely not pass; the conservative liberal group in the House of Representatives rejects most of the recent proposals. Proposal on medical insurance bill.

United States House of Representatives Republican Byrne pointed out that if this week's health insurance bill is not passed, I am afraid that the chances of approving the bill will be greatly reduced; because most Republicans in the House of Representatives lack interest in the negotiations, the prospects of the health insurance bill are frustrated; I believe there will be enough The support ticket to approve the health care bill.

The US House of Representatives Republican Liberal Party Chairman Maddox believes that the new medical insurance bill has not received sufficient support votes, but still full of confidence in the passage; hope that the Liberal Party's reasonable request can eventually be adopted in the new medical insurance bill.

At present, market analysts believe that if the bill fails to pass, the US stock market may be suppressed again, and gold may continue to attack. However, if the Trump health reform bill is passed, market risk appetite will heat up again, which will suppress gold. Hedging demand; some analysts pointed out that even if the medical reform bill abortion Trump tax reform will still come, this is not conducive to the gold price outlook.

Morgan Stanley strategist Gordian Kemen pointed out in the report that if the bill is passed in the US House of Representatives, it will support investors' preference for risk and emerging market assets. If the voting situation is “not passed”, it may lead to similar Tuesday's decline; the failure of the bill may be seen as a delay to Trump's reforms; it is the optimism about its underlying policies that propelled the stock market's uptrend after the election; the greater risk that the bill fails to pass will be Does it increase the threat of protectionism, which is one of the main risks facing Morgan Stanley’s bullish emerging markets?

Goldman Sachs analyst Phillips believes that the passage of the health care bill is not important for tax reform. The most important issue for financial markets is that Congress will complete matters related to this bill in one way or another. As a result, we can continue to move forward to the tax reform, which is likely to have a greater impact on corporate profits and the real economy than the health care reform bill.

Phillips also pointed out that Trump's "US Health Care Act" is about 50% likely to be approved by the House of Representatives. For tax reform measures, the possibility of approval before the beginning of 2018 is as high as 80%, and may even be implemented in the fourth quarter of 2017.

It is worth mentioning that at present, Trump, the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives, has 237 seats, and the Democratic Party has 193 seats. To pass the bill, you need to get more than half of the votes (215 votes). Because the Democratic Party can expect to vote against it, the Republican Party can only There were 22 negative votes, and the Republicans who are currently opposed to the bill by the Liberal Party are estimated to have a maximum of 37. If Trump is hard enough, the bill is passed, and it is not impossible.

☆ Fundamental Aspect 2: Strong US real estate data provides support for the US dollar

Although Fed Chair Yellen’s speech did not involve monetary policy overnight, Trump’s medical reform bill vote was delayed one day, but the US new home sales data released overnight showed the best performance in seven months, helping the dollar stabilize At present, the US dollar index is trading near 99.95, while the price of gold has fallen back to the vicinity of 1,424 US dollars at a three-month high of 1,253.28.

(Dollar Chart Daily Chart)

According to specific data, the total number of new home sales in the United States in February was 592,000, which was better than the market expectation of 56.5. The annualized monthly rate of new home sales in the United States increased by 6.1% in February, which was better than the market expectation of 0.7%. The data showed the best performance since July 2016, indicating that the recent increase in the cost of mortgage loans in the US residential market has little effect.

Reuters comments pointed out that some may be supported by non-seasonal warm weather, suggesting that the US real estate market continues to gain recovery momentum despite the challenges of high prices and tight inventory.

In addition, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 15,000 to 258,000, a seven-week high; the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index showed that US consumer love base, net worth, and information confidence rose to the highest level since 2001. These have provided support for the Fed to continue to raise interest rates during the year, thus providing some support to the US dollar, which may limit the upside of the gold price in the medium and long term.

Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, predicts that the Fed will pay more attention to the data in the follow-up rate hike in 2017, and the risk will be reduced. If the Fed’s forecast for the economy is accurate, the interest rate hike in June will be reasonable.

☆ Fundamental Aspect 3: Fed officials generally maintain interest rate expectations for three times during the year

According to Huitong.com, nine Fed officials have spoken this week. Chairman Yellen and Vice President Dudley have not involved monetary policy. Among other officials, only Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari is relatively dovish. The remaining officials voted to support the Fed to raise interest rates three times or more during the year; this is expected to provide support for the US dollar in the medium and long-term, so that the gold bulls still have scruples.

The last official to speak was the 2017 vote committee, Dallas Fed President Kaplan, Kaplan said on Friday morning that the United States is approaching the point where the allowable balance sheet is gradually reduced, and has achieved in achieving inflation and employment goals. Some progress. The Fed is currently accommodative and should gradually and patiently remove the easing policy. Now, the independence of the Fed is more important than ever. In addition, he remains optimistic about the US dollar as a foreign exchange reserve.

According to Huitong.com, the US federal funds rate futures show that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in April is still unchanged at 13.3, the probability of raising interest rates in June is 50.2%, and the probability of raising interest rates in September is 76.1%.

BNP Paribas (BNPP) pointed out that the first Fed rate hike in 2017 is far ahead of the expectations of a large number of market participants. If the US economic data is still strong, there is no reason to believe that the Fed will not raise interest rates again in June. From the current dollar level, it is advisable to increase the dollar position.

Huitong.com reminded that from the experience of the Fed’s rate hike in the past, although the Fed’s interest rate hike has always rebounded for various reasons after the Fed’s interest rate hike, the price of gold has risen more than 50 since the Fed’s interest rate hike last week. The US dollar; however, before the Fed raises interest rates, the price of gold is still generally in a downward trend, which means that the mid-line trend of the gold price may still face the pressure of interest rate hike again.

In terms of gold ETF positions, the world's largest gold ETF-SPDR positions in the past two trading days have remained unchanged at 834.4 tons, and responding institutional investors are still generally on the sidelines.

☆Technical Aspects: The price of gold has been blocked twice, and the downside risks have increased.

From the daily view, spot gold failed to effectively break the resistance of 1,250 US dollars for two consecutive days. It was recorded with a small Yinxian line with a shadow line overnight, suggesting that the pressure on the gold price correction will increase, and the following concern is the resistance near the $1237.33. For the 61.2% retracement of the previous downtrend, the Bollinger Band's mid-rail support is located near $1231.65. If the price of gold falls below that level, it is expected to return to the downtrend.

However, if the price of gold can withstand the pressure of the callback and hold on to support near $1,237, there is still a chance for the market to rise slightly. The top is concerned about the resistance around the overnight high of $1,253 and the resistance around the February 27 high of $1,263.94.

☆ Trading Reminder: Focus on US Durable Goods Order Data and Trump Health Care Reform Act

Huitong.com reminded that Trump's medical reform bill will be released in the evening. The US durable goods orders data for February will be released. The current market expectation is an increase of 1.4%. Generally, if the published value of the data does not match expectations, the gold price may generate 8-12. The impact of the US dollar is currently expected to increase by 1.4%, and investors need to pay attention.

A list of important financial data and events on Friday (March 24):

1 15:45 France's fourth quarter GDP annual rate final value;

2 16:00 French initial manufacturing PMI in March;

3 16:30 The initial value of the manufacturing PMI in Germany in March;

4 17:00 Eurozone March manufacturing PMI initial value;

5 20:30 Canada's February CPI monthly rate, US February durable goods order monthly rate;

6 20:45 The Fed's 2017 FOMC voting committee Evans delivered a speech;

7 21:45 US March Markit manufacturing PMI initial value;

8th day 01:00 US to March 24th week oil drilling data

9 Time is not determined to vote for the Trump Medical Reform Act.