Taishan period: night and October 19 main trading recommendations

Rubber oscillated slightly and will fall back on Thursday

On October 17, the market for butadiene rubber in Tianjin increased tentatively. At present, the mainstream of Daqing Shunding reported 12,800 yuan / ton, downstream on-demand inquiry, the market turnover was light. Qingdao Free Trade Zone, as of the end of September, the rubber stocks rebounded, the firm guidance plus micro-signal: tslq88 increased by 0.21 million tons, an increase of 1.12% compared with mid-September, mainly due to the increase of synthetic rubber, natural rubber continued destocking process, compared with the previous period The decrease was 0.49 million tons, a decrease of 3.7%. Under the background of supply-side reform, Tianjiao is difficult to reverse periodically, and global production growth expectations are still in the stage of inventory decline. Supply pressure is difficult to release. At present, the market mainstream reference price: Huadong State-owned 16 full latex reference price at 11,550 yuan / ton; Tai San tobacco tablets offer at 14050 yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L offer at 12,000 yuan / ton

Rubber oscillated slightly on Wednesday, and the night and Thursday rubber short-term will also rebound. The intraday rebound is expected to be small, and will soon be short-selled by the bears. The basic trend will be high first and then the pressure will fall back. If the operation is carried out, it is recommended that the rubber rebounds and then actively arranges the empty order to enter the field. It is expected to fall back to the k line with the upper shadow line.

Copper, aluminum, zinc and nickel short-term rebound

Shanghai copper futures pressure 55,000 yuan / ton for adjustment, the spot market is a cautious atmosphere, coincides with high adjustment, firm guidance plus micro-signal: tslq88 downstream continue to wait and see, the market has a large number of goods, the lack of receiving and cashing will coexist or Will make the premium still have room for downward adjustment. London copper futures wheezed around a three-year high on Tuesday, the dollar strengthened to suppress copper prices, but the optimism of China's economic prospects reappeared, supporting copper prices. Traders said the market is concerned about China's implementation of copper import restrictions, including scrap copper imports. According to recent data, Chinese producers' profits and copper imports have risen. Despite the cooling of the Chinese property market and the government's response to debt risks, China's economic growth in the third quarter is expected to fall from 6.9% in the previous quarter to 6.8%. Rio Tinto Mining Group lowered its 2017 mine copper production target to 460,000 tons to 480,000 tons, which was previously expected to be 500,000 to 550,000 tons, due to delays in the production of its Chilean copper mine.

Operation suggestion: Copper, aluminum, zinc and nickel weakened as expected on Wednesday, in line with the short-selling point suggested by the author. After the adjustment of the colored plate, it is not recommended to chase the empty list again. The short-term position of this position will rebound and the operation will be able to open in the colored plate. After the end of the opportunity to buy more than a single, it is expected that the bottom of the rebound will rise and rise, the price will rebound after the rebound and short-term timely take profit.

Thread iron ore high diving, empty single profit rolling

Spot: Yesterday Tangshan billet 3640 (up 20) turnover was weak; iron ore weakened, coke coking coal continued to decline. The firm guidance plus micro-signal: tslq88 major cities in the country rebar rose, the transaction is general, Shanghai 4040 (up 60), Beijing 3820 (up 20). At present, the inventory of steel mills increased slightly, and the social inventories continued to increase. The capacity utilization rate and daily average output of crude steel remained at a high level, and the supply began to decline due to the impact of environmental protection. The leading steel mills were mainly at the ex-factory price in mid-October. The current demand is weak, and many cities in the north have been shut down, limited production orders, and the weather has turned cold to affect the construction of the Northeast. Recently, the total amount of Beicai South has increased, which will suppress the market price, and the spot is affected by futures fluctuations. Macro and external factors: The party group of the State Council of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to ensure the completion of the main objectives of the economic and social development throughout the year. September CPI was 1.6% year-on-year, lower than 2% for 8 consecutive months; PPI rose to 6.9% year-on-year, a record high in six months. The conflict in Iraq has expanded and the oil price has risen above $58.

Threaded steel ore first rebounded on Wednesday, and then the performance of the slewing consolidation of the rebar was weak. It continued until the closing of the empty hair before the close, and the firm guidance plus micro-signal: tSLq88 rebar diving fell back The negative line in the bald head completely confirms the author's suggestion that the rebound will be short, the short-selling in the session, the thread iron ore night and the Thursday will also usher in a decline, it is recommended to continue to participate in the empty list.

Plastic pp and pvc seek breakthrough opportunities

According to data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API), the US crude oil inventories fell by 7.13 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 13, which fell far more than expected and was the largest in two months. The firm guidance plus micro-signal: tslq88 and both gasoline and refined oil stocks recorded an increase. The positive impact of the sharp drop in crude oil inventories was offset by the negative impact of both gasoline and refined oil inventories. Well-known financial zero-hedging said that the US oil market showed a V-shaped trend, the oil price was in the upward trend before the release of API data; crude oil inventories recorded the largest decline in two months, but the gasoline and refined oil inventories recorded an unexpected increase, the US oil price The increase has narrowed. The market is currently awaiting the release of official inventory data by the US Energy Information Association (EIA) on Wednesday. Tensions in the Middle East mean a risk premium on oil prices, exacerbating the tightness of the US market. The Iraqi government forces earlier this week seized the Kurdish-controlled oil town of Kirkuk and responded to the Kurdish independence referendum.

Operation suggestion: Plastic pp and pvc are slightly arranged on Wednesday. Both long and short sides have failed to achieve a single breakthrough and start to oscillate. The basic ideas on Thursday continue to be long. It is recommended that plastic pp and pvc start to fall back and buy more orders. It is expected to bottom out. The rebound is higher, and it is recommended to make a good profit in a timely manner after a single high.

Beans and leeks are swayed at high levels, and shorts will have

1. The US Department of Agriculture said that US soybean export sales last week were 1,747,300 tons, higher than the industry's estimate of 900,000 to 1.2 million tons. 2. The US Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crush report is expected to show that US soybean crush in September increased by 6.0% from the same period of the previous year. In one survey, the six analysts surveyed on average expected a September crush of 137.807 billion bushels. Spot: October 14th, Shandong Rizhao area: factory price, first grade soybean oil 6060 yuan / ton. Zhangjiagang area: quoted by traders, level 1 soybean oil 6160 yuan / ton. Jiangsu Taixing area has oil plant today soybean meal price: 43% protein: stop report; October basis difference 1801 +100 yuan / ton;

Operation suggestion: Soybean meal 弱 弱 弱 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕Short-selling, in the intraday, seeing the high trend of the market, the soybean meal is short-moving and fast-forward.

Egg ideas continue to do more, you can continue to buy

On October 18th, the national egg price was stable, and some areas fluctuated slightly. The Beijing and Shanghai regions are generally stable, the Guangdong region is slightly adjusted, the farmers are normally shipped, and the local goods are generally in stock. Sogou Xiaobian recommends that you do not blindly inventory, keep an eye on the egg price, and ship with the market to provide better quality for the market. egg. The price of eggs in Henan has been decreasing steadily, with a drop of 0.05-0.07 yuan/kg. The mainstream price is 3.40-3.65 yuan/kg. The farmers are usually shipping normally. The speed of the market is different, short-term market or weak. Beijing area Today, egg prices are generally stable, the mainstream price is still 155 yuan / piece, the arrival of goods is normal, the goods are slightly faster, the short-term market is more stable; the price of eggs in Shanghai is generally stable, the mainstream price of red eggs is still 3.82 yuan / kg, arrival and The goods are more general, the recent market is mainly stable; the price of eggs in Fujian area has not changed today; the price of eggs in Guangdong is stable, the range of increase and decrease is 0.05-0.10 yuan / kg, the Guangzhou market has received more goods, the goods More normal.

Operation suggestion: Eggs will receive the cross star on Wednesday, and the trend will see that the shock rebound is still high. On Thursday, we need to wait for the callback opportunity to appear. After the market declines, we will buy more than one operation. It is expected that the egg will continue to go higher. Short-term take profit can also be held in the band.

Soybean oil palm oil interval finishing, interval bottom line to buy more than one

KUALA LUMPUR, October 17 (Reuters) - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures prices fell on Tuesday as demand slowed and investors made a profit before Wednesday's public holiday. The BMD index January crude palm oil futures contract fell 0.8% to 2,741 MYR per ton, the first time in a week, hitting an intraday low of 2,738 MYR. The volume was 56,668 lots, 25 tons per hand. A futures trader in Kuala Lumpur said: “Because tomorrow is a holiday, there is some profit-taking in the palm oil market.” Another trader said that demand slowdown puts pressure on the market, and palm oil futures fundamentals seem to be empty. . “Production will rise and export growth will slow down. Palm oil stocks may reach 2 million tons in December.” According to data released last week by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, Malaysia’s palm oil stocks climbed 4% to 2.02 million tons in late September. Palm oil production in September fell 1.7% to 1.78 million tons; palm oil exports increased 1.8% to 1.52 million tons.

Operation suggestion: Soybean oil palm oil fell back to the yin on Wednesday, and once again returned to the shock zone. After adjusting on Wednesday, the two are in the lower side of the shock zone. The probability of oil breakthrough is not large, so after reaching the lower limit of the shock zone, it is better to buy more. Opportunities, nights and more than one single participation on Thursday, it is expected to bottom out and rebound, it is recommended to operate a short time and do a good job in time.

The asphalt methanol rebound will continue

As of October 13, the weighted operating rate of traditional methanol downstream enterprises was 47.56%. The firm guidance and micro-signal: tslq88 rose 1.21% year-on-year, and rebounded nearly 7 percentage points from the end of August. This year's environmental protection and supply-side reforms have restricted the supply of traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether and acetic acid, and profits have improved significantly. In October, traditional downstream consumption will show seasonal improvement, and the operating rate of downstream enterprises will continue to rise. At the end of November. In September, Shenhua Baotou and Datang International and other large MTO factories were shut down for maintenance. In October, Lianhong Chemical was shut down for 40 days at the beginning of the month. The Shaanxi Pucheng integrated device was overhauled in mid-term, and the MTO operating rate will remain relatively low. The emerging MTO demand for methanol Will remain weak. However, Jilin Cornell's 300,000-ton MTO plant was completed in China on September 30. In November, Fude had the expectation of driving. The super-MTO factory maintenance and restart will bring about new demand for methanol. It is expected that the demand for methanol in the emerging MTO field will be Reduce first and then increase.

Futures market: Methanol rebounded on Wednesday, and the asphalt closed at the cross star. The methanol form is expected to continue to rebound. The recent performance of the asphalt is weak but it is expected to be driven by methanol. The night and Thursday are recommended to do more operations. Methanol can try to hold more than one band, and asphalt methanol will continue to rebound.

Pta rebound is difficult to continue, shorts will come back

Chemical futures generally rose slightly. Recently, industrial products futures stopped falling and rebounded overall, which is good for market mentality. The upstream PX market is flat, and PTA maintains a production profit of 100 yuan/ton. The downstream polyester factory held a group price hike, and the speculative market led the terminal to chase the atmosphere. This week, the polyester production and sales preference, the polyester start load of 89% on the PTA rigid demand is stable. PTA fundamentals preference, but the market lacks confidence in chasing, mainly because of the expected increase in supply due to the launch of new PTA devices and the re-launch of old devices. In addition, the general trend of industrial product futures volatility has not changed, and the market mentality is cautious. In October, although some PTA equipment maintenance accelerated the pace of destocking in the market, the overall weakening of the commodity market led to the adjustment of the PTA spot price. At the same time, the textile industry is picking up. The operating rate of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machines has increased to 86%, and the operating rate of the loom has increased to 80%. The textile industry is gradually picking up. Polyester and polyester companies have higher operating rates, but they are limited by the weakness of the entire commodity market. On the way to destocking, PTA prices will fluctuate in a narrow range.

Operation suggestion: pta rebounded on Wednesday, the pta alone will be difficult to sustain in the case of the continued downturn in the chemical sector. The night and Thursday pta can participate in the short position in the price increase, and it is expected to fall back. The bulls will suffer major pressure on Thursday.

Cotton fell back and fell, rebounded to continue short

Among the cotton enterprises visited on the 15th, the current purchase volume is about 3,000-7,000 tons per household, and the processing volume accounts for 35-40% of the purchase volume. After processing, it is scheduled to make an appointment for public inspection. The quality of the lint is mostly "double 29". And above, hand-picked cotton sales offer at 16200-16500 yuan / ton, machine mining cotton 16000-16250 yuan / ton, profit is acceptable. The Wusu area is mainly based on machine-made cotton. Enterprises generally reflect that the quality of lint processed this year is better than that of previous years. In particular, the current value of machine-picked cotton is close to B grade, and the indicators are conducive to sales. Most companies indicated that there is no intention to sell goods, but the recent sales progress is greatly affected by market logistics, which has slowed down the speed of lint outbreaks to a certain extent, and is also not conducive to cotton enterprises to purchase seed cotton. At present, cotton farmers are actively selling, but some cotton companies are limited in processing. The main reason is that some enterprises have not started well in recent years, and the processing progress of seed cotton is slow. A large number of enterprises are waiting in line to wait for the sale of cotton farmers.

Operation suggestion: Cotton rushed back on Wednesday to report the Yin cross star, which fully confirmed the author's suggestion that the cotton is high and short, the night and cotton continue to wait for the rebound after the high, and participate in the short position, the idea to maintain the short-term view constant.

Coking coal coke fell sharply as scheduled, making a big profit

In the spot market, according to industry insiders, the environmental inspections in North China and East China were tightened again last week, and the supply of coke enterprises contracted again. As steel mills continue to cut the purchase price of coke, the spot price of coke enters the downtrend channel. The rebound in coke futures prices has resulted in significant repairs to its futures price. Real-time guidance plus micro-signal: tslq88 "At present, there are large-scale production reductions and overhauls in coke enterprises and steel mills, and the coke market is weakly consolidating. It is under pressure from the poor demand of steel mills, and the overall cautious atmosphere is strong." Cui Xiaofei, an analyst at Jinlian Innovation, said. In the later period, environmental protection inspections were further strengthened. Steel mills also intend to maintain low-cumber production, and replenish the replenishment methods or become the main theme. According to industry insiders, the available inventory days of coke in North China before the National Day is 9.88 days, and the number of days available after the holiday is 9.82 days. There is no obvious change in the whole. However, due to environmental protection and limited production, the operating rate of coke enterprises in the region has become obvious. The decline in the current capacity utilization rate of coke ovens in North China fell by 11.01% from the previous quarter.

Futures market: coking coal coke rebounded high on Wednesday, and then the pressure rose weakly. In the afternoon, it was weakened by short-selling pressure. Before the close, the large-scale diving fell back to the negative line. The coking coal coke confirmed the author's suggestion of rebounding short, coking coal coke After the late diving, the night market is bound to go lower. It is recommended to continue to participate in the short-selling after the opening of the night.

(Editor: Shao Yidi HF116)